Whoever has lived in Kenya and understood the political landscape can easiliy point out who is archoring to run for presidency by monitoring his or her public events. Raphael Tuju's presidential bid should not take us by surprise especially when he started moving around the country under the mantle of Kenya  Hope Foundation. Like him or not, he entered an already crowded space but in his own style.

Who remains in and who goes out just before the elections will be determined by many factors. How long will Hon. Pogisho last in his ambition? We have not heard much from Hon. Muite ever since he formally launched his bid. Are still expecting others to join this field in the next few months? Perhaps Harun Mwau may just do that. But where are the women? Has Ngilu left it to Martha Karua?

Watch this space for more analysis on presidential bids.

Only SMART Politicians Will Survive Kenya's 2012 Elections

A recent opinion poll by Infotrack indicated that more than 63% of the seating Members of Parliament will not be re-elected – at least if elections were to be held today. This should not come as a surprise considering the prevailing tough economic conditions and out-of-touch kind of leadership among some elected officials. It is surprising that we have not heard protests by the same MPs against the pollster noting that just recently, some MPs were out to pass a law regulating opinion polling in Kenya. Could the MPs have come to the realization that some of them will just have to work a little harder to retain their seats?

The on-going debate on paying taxes has made things even worse for the MPs. There is evidence that despite the hefty salaries and allowances, some MPs are so indebted to the extent that they avoid visiting their respective constituencies. In politics, once an elected leader loses touch with those who voted him into office, it is the beginning of their downfall.  Read more

MEDIA ANALYSIS AND TRACKING